Based on 7,34,078 price checks across 37,167 Delhi NCR routes, 23 Jun to 24 Aug 2026, roughly 9 am to 7 pm.
Key findings
Fixed rate card. Bike ₹60 + ₹7.5/km, auto ₹253 + ₹20/km, mini-truck ₹439 + ₹25/km. Unchanged across the full two months.
3 pm surcharge. Auto and mini-truck quotes step up from 3 pm on working days. Sundays: autos exempt, mini-trucks pay a smaller amount.
Weekends. The rate card does not change on weekends. Saturday is priced like a weekday; Sunday only differs through the surcharge and lower demand.
Demand top-ups. Applied in fixed steps (bike ₹5s, auto ₹100s, mini-truck ₹200s) and typically stay on for 30 to 60 minutes.
Rain. On heavy-rain days top-ups fire about twice as often. The rate card itself does not move.
Estimator accuracy. 95% for bikes, 90% for autos, 93% for mini-trucks with live market data, measured on two unseen weeks. Bike estimates were typically within ₹8 of the actual quote.
Estimate a quote
Set distance, time, day and weather. The estimate applies the rate card plus the observed surcharge and top-up patterns.
Trip distance12 km
Time of day
Day
Weather
Typical central-Delhi route. Specific areas vary by about ₹15 on a bike and ₹70 on the larger vehicles.
The rate card
Removing time-of-day effects, every route sits on a fixed base price: a starting charge plus a per-km rate. The shaded band shows how much individual areas run above or below it.
Bike: ₹60 to start, then ₹7.5 per kmAuto / e-loader: ₹253 to start, then ₹20 per kmMini-truck: ₹439 to start, then ₹25 per km
Time of day
Share of quotes above the rate card through the day. Auto and mini-truck prices step up at 3 pm on working days. Sundays (dashed): autos stay at the rate card, mini-trucks step up by a smaller amount. Bike prices follow demand only.
Rain
Average lift above the rate card, day by day. Blue bars mark days with IMD-reported heavy rain, including the first week of August. On those days top-ups fired about twice as often; the rate card stayed unchanged.
Estimate accuracy
Trained on the first seven weeks, tested on the final two: 2.5 lakh quotes not used in training, largely new routes, including four heavy-rain days. Accuracy is measured against the actual quote (100 minus the average error).
Bike95% accurate with live data, typically ₹8 from the actual quote
Watching the market95%
Calendar only89%
Stricter cut: 84 of 100 live estimates land within 10% of the quote (58 of 100 calendar only).
Auto / e-loader90% accurate with live data, typically ₹63 from the actual quote
Watching the market90%
Calendar only83%
Stricter cut: 61 of 100 live estimates land within 10% of the quote (31 of 100 calendar only).
Mini-truck93% accurate with live data, typically ₹72 from the actual quote
Watching the market93%
Calendar only90%
Stricter cut: 71 of 100 live estimates land within 10% of the quote (57 of 100 calendar only).
"Watching the market" means the price checker keeps running and recent quotes feed the estimate. Because top-ups persist for 30 to 60 minutes, the current state is observable, which accounts for the accuracy gap between the two rows.
Method summary
price(route, time) = price_list(route) + scheduled_surcharge(time, day) + demand_top_up(live) price_list = base + rate × km + area adjustments (bike ₹60 + ₹7.5/km · auto ₹253 + ₹20/km · truck ₹439 + ₹25/km) top-ups move in fixed steps (bike ₹5s, auto ₹100s, truck ₹200s) and stay on ~30 to 60 min held-out test, Aug 10 to 24: average accuracy 95% / 90% / 93% live (89% / 83% / 90% without); average miss ₹8 / ₹63 / ₹72; half of live estimates within 2.1% / 7.5% / 4.8% of the quote
Rain days cross-checked against IMD press reports. Full engine, training code and analyst report: fable/ folder. Internal use.